California Secession? 27 Potential Scenarios


By Hank Pellissier



The California Independence movement - to break away from the USA as a separate nation - is gaining steam, motivated by factors like Brexit, Scottish & Catalonian separatism, dislike of Trump & Republican policies, Senate under-representation, and increasing wealth - California is the 5th biggest economy in the world.



Will this ambitious, global-altering plan succeed? Or is it just a foolish fantasy? 



Below I list twenty-seven future scenarios, ranging from possible to ludicrous, from utopian to apocalyptic. 

I know I overlooked dozens of other optional tomorrows - please let me know what you think will happen by emailing hankpellissier@yahoo.com. 



Here’s the list - the number does not indicate likelihood:



1. Senate Reform takes place, giving California 12 Senators and many states just one (Texas gets 9, Florida and New York 6 each, etc.) This satisfies CA residents; the state stays in the union. 



2. Poor leadership repeatedly derails the CalExit movement - accusations of it being a Russian, Chinese, or Iranian strategy ruin its progress.



3. California voters repeatedly reject CalExit referendums; secession is eventually dropped.



4. Natural catastrophes weaken California - earthquakes, fires, floods, tsunamis, tornadoes, rising sea level - California needs emergency federal funds, the CalExit movement is shelved.



5. TEXIT happens; Texas leaves the USA and California stays in, as the guiding force of the remaining 49.



6. Nuclear war breaks out between USA and an enemy. CalExit is forgotten.



7. A controversial war erupts between USA and a so-called enemy. Peace movement in California leads to secession. USA can’t resist because it is distracted by war.



8. USA slips out of democracy into authoritarianism; California resists but is militarily defeated.



9. USA slips out of democracy into authoritarianism; California resists - aided by international allies it separates, after a bloody struggle.



10. California elects a charismatic governor on a CalExit platform; a peaceable exit is achieved.



11. “Bible Belt” states break away to create a UCSA “United Christian States of America” with prayers in every school and no abortion. The remaining USSA “United Secular States of America” design a new Constitution and enjoy their irreligious culture.



12. A violently-contested Presidential election splits the USA into red and blue regions; California happily joins 22-25 other blue states.



13. Technological breakthroughs on the West Coast triple the region’s wealth; California-Oregon-Washington form the nation of Pacifica and ‘buy their way out’ of the USA.



14. CalExit is on the ballot every year for 20 years, slowly gaining support. Referendums demand an exit, negotiations begin, progress is slow.



15. Pandemic ravages the USA, killing 25-50% of the population. National, state, and county authority disintegrates, “town halls” emerge as the only government, centered around hospital management. 



16. California is divided into 6 states, Texas into 4, New York and Florida into 3, every new state gets two senators, everyone is happy, CalExit retires. 



17. Rapid Global Warming depopulates the Southeast and Southwest due to unlivable temperatures; mass migration chaos leads to emergency government by meterologists. 



18. Virtual reality advances create exciting parallel worlds where everyone chooses to exist enjoying epic adventures. CalExit is forgotten.



19. USA goes bankrupt; China buys all property and America is a vassal state. Californians are happy because they finally have Medicare for All. 



20. ET’s from faraway planet land in Santa Barbara, establish capital there, world capitulates.



21. Rapid acceleration in global warming results in drought, dry riverbeds, ruined crops. USA is vacated in mass migration to temperate, water-rich Canada. 



22. A coalition of Democrat, Green, and Republican CalExit politicians negotiate a peaceful separation from the USA, splitting produce from the Central Valley.



23. By 2040, 65% of the USA population under 40 is atheistic. Christian leadership abandons America for more amenable souls in less developed, less educated nations. Secularism wins; Constitution revised; California remains. 



24. CalExit snipers assassinate both USA Presidential candidates in 2032, and hackers dismantle the nuclear arsenal. The Golden States slips safely away.



25. In 2044, the CA state government is 50% Hispanic and 25% Asian. Alliances with Latin America and Asia enable safe passage to independence.



26. USA divides into Red Rural and Blue Urban, with freeway tubes (without off-ramps) connecting the cities. Two totally different cultures co-exist side-by-side but isolated from each other. The estrangement is peaceful, due to necessity of trade.



27. The Singularity Arrives. Entire planet is governed by Artificial Intelligence. Everyone willingly accepts its decrees because they enjoy its inventions.